Silver is Telling Us About A Huge Market Shift

Forget the noise. Forget opinions and short-term market narratives. The indicators are loud and clear: leadership in the markets is shifting, and silver is at the forefront of that transition just like we said it would be once gold led the way.

Silver is foretelling another large spike in inflation over the next year (and with it the next commodity crack-up boom. Chart below).  

Markets are forward-looking—they’re already pointing to where the puck is going. And at FMT, we’re going there, too. A major capital rotation into commodities is underway, driven by powerful macroeconomic forces and deeply rooted fundamentals. Those who embrace this shift are likely to see outsized returns. Those who ignore it risk being caught in overvalued and fading asset classes.

This isn’t business as usual. This is the start to the fourth great commodity supercycle in U.S. history—following similar seismic shifts in the 1930s, 1970s, and 2000s. Today’s setup mirrors those periods in both structure and opportunity.

We’re entering a new phase of the commodity CAPEX cycle—a natural market rotation where capital flows away from overvalued equities into undervalued real assets. The next 12 to 36 months could be transformative for investors positioned correctly. 

The Sequence of Commodity Supercycles

History tells a consistent story. In each previous commodity supercycle, we’ve seen the same sequence play out—and it’s happening again:

1. Gold leads, fueled by economic uncertainty, capital rotation, and a weakening dollar. (Bitcoin is increasingly part of this early-mover group.)
2. Agricultural commodities and stocks follow, driven by food demand and currency tailwinds.
3. Silver lags initially, due to its industrial exposure, but then accelerates dramatically as financial conditions ease.
4. Oil and energy stocks surge last, as broader economic activity picks up. Watch the gold/silver ratio—it often signals this transition.

Silver’s Signal Can’t Be Ignored

Historically, one of the most telling signs of a major market regime change is when silver begins to outperform gold. That moment is happening now—quietly, while most investors remain distracted by recency bias and underperforming market darlings.

FMT has long said gold would lead this capital shift—and it has. Gold is outperforming the S&P 500, NASDAQ, the so-called “Magnificent 7,” and even AI stocks—by a massive margin. But the real story is just beginning.

When gold peaks against the price of silver and silver takes the lead, that’s when the broader commodity complex tends to ignite. This dynamic played out in each of the last three supercycles. Those who rotated early into commodities outperformed by a wide margin, while those who clung to overvalued tech and growth stocks suffered.

Today feels like déjà vu.

Silver’s breakout is more than just a technical move. Like gold, its now outperforming inflation, the NASDAQ, the S&P 500, and the MAG7. Even more telling—silver miners have also begun outperforming major indices, suggesting real momentum beneath the surface.

Silver vs. Inflation: A Critical Inflection Point

After a 15-year downtrend against CPI (starting in 2010), silver is now breaking out against inflation—a historically reliable signal that a long-term inflationary and commodity cycle is underway.

We’ve seen this before. In the 1970s and again from 2000 to 2011, when silver began to outperform inflation (like today), oil, natural gas, and other commodities followed with massive gains while the broader indices like the S&P 500 crashed and then went nowhere for a decade.

In short, the disinflationary era of the last decade is ending. The baton has passed. Old market leaders are fading. A new commodity bull market is entering its early innings—and silver is leading the charge.

It’s time to take off the rearview mirror.

The Cup & Handle: Silver’s Historic Technical Setup

One more technical note: silver is forming one of the most bullish cup-and-handle patterns in modern financial history. From a long-term perspective, this setup supports the thesis that a multi-year commodity bull market is not just likely—it’s already underway.

Oil & Natural Gas: Next in Line

Now that gold is rolling over against the price of silver (silver is outperforming), history suggests that oil and natural gas are likely the next to run along with it.

Despite sluggish global manufacturing data, silver’s strength implies underlying economic resilience. That’s good news for industrial commodities. With energy equities wholly undervalued—especially relative to gold, the S&P 500, and growth sectors—we may be approaching a crack-up boom in oil and natural gas over the next few years.

Like silver, the fundamentals support oil and energy companies. Supply remains tight, and oil buffers are eroding. Capital investment has lagged. Valuations are deeply discounted. Geology is tapped. All signs point to a powerful bull cycle brewing in the energy space.

Final Thought

The markets are speaking. Silver is telling the story—and it’s a profound one. The setup today mirrors the great commodity booms of the past century. The capital rotation is real, and it’s only gaining momentum. The gaining momentum will likely turn into a multi-year commodity bull market. 

Those who position themselves ahead of the curve will likely reap the rewards. Those who don’t? History has not been kind to them.

Be on the right side of history. FMT is.

Best Regards,

Nicholas Green