The Key to Wealthy Returns

Patience and Secular Trends Are the Key

We’re riding a rare, once-in-a-10-to-15-year trend cycle shift, and the commodity Supercycle is heating up. The next few years have the promise of stellar rewards for those who pay attention.

I’m also gearing up to launch a downtown hybrid-business spot in one of my favorite Colorado towns. It’s gonna be a blast, so if you’re in town, swing by (hit me up for details)! If you’re enamored with the area, I know the best realtor.

Good things take time, and in investing, patience is a virtue preached often but rarely practiced. The irreverent writer Anne Lamott swears by two prayers: “whatever” in the morning and “oh, well” at night. Sounds like most market days, right? They start with promise and often end with a shrug.

Yet, stellar returns bloom from patience. Just like life, markets mix moments of glory with stretches of mediocrity.

Bitcoin is the poster child here (or any publicly traded business, frankly). Most days, its price action ends with an “oh, well.” Even though Bitcoin ranks among history’s top-performing assets—and FMT believes it’ll keep shining over the next eight years—its daily returns are unimpressive. Over 90% of the time, Bitcoin’s flat or down in short-term measures (“oh, well”).

You can’t afford to miss its best days, or you’re stuck with mediocrity.

Bitcoin proves patience is a superpower. With it, portfolio returns become nearly unbeatable, making life more affordable over time. But patience demands knowledge, and knowledge fuels the conviction (and discipline) to hold steady with a high-volatility asset like Bitcoin.

This same mindset applies to the looming commodity Supercycle. Volatility is the name of the game. The world’s unpredictable—your only certainty is a Walmart toaster with a return receipt. The economic trends fueling this Supercycle will demand knowledge and conviction, just like Bitcoin. At FMT, we’re building both. All signs point to it, and Future Money Trends (FMT) doesn’t mean clinging to old patterns—new ones are forming.

The past year’s been solid; the next few should be stellar as the Supercycle kicks into high gear. We’re investing more aggressively as it unfolds.

Let’s revisit my last note, The Rose Garden Massacre, on how commodity Supercycles unfold. This one’s tracking the last three secular Supercycles to a tee.

The Sequence of Commodity Supercycles

In the 1930s, 1970s, and 2000s, commodity Supercycles followed a clear pattern, and today’s no different:

1. Gold leads as capital rotates and the dollar weakens (Bitcoin’s in the mix now, too). This kicks off due to economic uncertainty.
2. Agricultural stocks follow as food demand meets weak-currency tailwinds.
3. Silver lags gold due to its economic sensitivity, then soars post-monetary easing or looser financial conditions.
4. Oil & energy producers rise as economies heat up (watch the easing gold/silver ratio for clues).

2025 is lining up just like the 1930s, 1970s, and 2000s. Since my last note, silver’s started outpacing gold, signaling an oil bull market ahead. The next few years look primed for select oil producers—we’re going big here.

Natural gas is already strong, and our top two producers are poised to run again. The macro and supply/demand outlook couldn’t be brighter as trillions pour into U.S. manufacturing, AI (an energy hog), and robust basin economics.

Most folks are still in denial about this secular shift, stuck extrapolating the past and blind to where value’s headed. This is only the fourth major market structure shift since the 1920s, so we’ll cut the skeptics some slack. Social consensus won’t save them—capital flows and valuations will.

As I said before: FMT’s aligning with history, capital flows, and value. So should you. Join us on this ride through the next big secular trends.

Best Regards,
Nicholas Green